Fuels Institute: It would take close to a decade for a new vehicle technology to reach market saturation

ALEXANDRIA, Va., 2017-Jun-15 — /EPR Retail News/ — It would take close to a decade for a new vehicle technology to reach market saturation, according to a new report released today (6/14/2017) by the Fuels Institute. The report, “New Technology Adoption Curves: A Case Study on Delivering E25-Capable Vehicles to Market,” demonstrates that it would be highly unlikely for a new vehicle powertrain optimized to operate on a gasoline blend containing 25% ethanol (E25) to achieve 20% market share by 2025, due directly to fleet turnover rates.

“To signal the fuels market to make a new fuel product broadly available, there must be a realistic expectation that demand will be sufficient to support the retail and distribution investments,” explained Fuels Institute Executive Director John Eichberger. “For this project, we selected a 20% share of vehicles on the ground to represent that signal. The study found that it would likely take many years, combined with very strong sales of these new vehicles in their first years on the market, to achieve this level of market penetration.”

The study, prepared by Navigant Research, calculates how many of these new vehicles must be sold each year to reach 20% fleet share by 2025 if the vehicles were first offered for sale in 2018, 2020 or 2022. The report shows, in each scenario, that vehicle sales in the first and subsequent years must be significant to achieve the model’s established targets. First-year sales of E25-capable vehicles would have to total 629,000 if introduced in 2018, 1.3 million in 2020 and 3.8 million in 2022. The ramp up in sales in subsequent years required to achieve 20% market share is equally significant.

“Because the existing light-duty fleet in the United States is so large, it will take a considerable amount of time for any new technology to reach market saturation,” Eichberger continued. “The report does not consider any elements other than sales and fleet turnover. It does not evaluate automaker production schedules, regulatory approval requirements or any other market introduction steps, each of which could add complexity and further delay market penetration. This study is simply a calculation of fleet turnover.”

“While we analyze E25-capable vehicles in this case study, the findings are applicable beyond E25,” Eichberger said. “It does not matter what technology or powertrain is being contemplated, as every change to the fleet will take time to affect the market.”

“New Technology Adoption Curves: A Case Study on Delivering E25-Capable Vehicles to Market” can be downloaded for free at fuelsinstitute.org

NACS advances the role of convenience stores as positive economic, social and philanthropic contributors to the communities they serve. The U.S. convenience store industry, with more than 154,000 stores nationwide selling fuel, food and merchandise, serves 160 million customers daily—half of the U.S. population—and has sales that are 10.8% of total U.S. retail and foodservice sales. NACS has 2,100 retailer and 1,750 supplier members from more than 50 countries.

Source: NACS

NACS launches new online resource for everything fuels-related: the Fuels Resource Center

​ALEXANDRIA, Va., 2016-Jan-20 — /EPR Retail News/ — The convenience and fuel retailing industry sells 80% of the fuels purchased in the United States at approximately 128,000 convenience stores—that’s about 40 million fill-ups a day. As the voice of the industry in the fuels arena, NACS created the Fuels Resource Center to encompass research, news and data for the novice consumer to the knowledgeable retailer on all things fuels—from gasoline and diesel to alternative fuels.

“This online research communicates our industry’s expertise, historical insights, analyses and news within the U.S. convenience and fuels retailing landscape. The continually updated Fuels Resource Center is a go-to site for retailers, the media and consumers,” said Jeff Lenard, NACS vice president of strategic industry initiatives. “Since the first filling station opened to consumers in the early 1900s, to today’s growth in alternatives such as electric and hydrogen, our industry has been on the forefront of retail fueling innovations and information. The Fuels Resource Center houses all of this knowledge in a one-stop, easy-to-use online hub.”

The Fuels Resource Center is designed to help educate the NACS audience and general public on retail fueling by serving as the go-to resource for fuels-related information, which is categorized into four areas:

  • Basics: General and historical information on retail fueling
  • Petroleum: The scoop on the leading energy source for today’s vehicles
  • Alternative Fuels: What’s new and what’s on the horizon in renewable fuels
  • Operations: Trending topics and regulatory information for convenience store operators

The Center also incorporates research and analysis from the Fuels Institute, which was founded by NACS in 2013 as a venue for all transportation industry stakeholders to come together and share ideas without a pre-determined agenda or outcome.

“Together, NACS and the work of the Fuels Institute is enhancing the education, awareness and regulatory issues that impact retailing fueling operations,” said John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute. “By bringing all our of research and knowledge into one centralized online location, we will continue amplifying the important role convenience stores have in the current retail fueling space and innovations being developed throughout the entire transportation market.”

As the Fuels Resource Center continues to evolve, NACS will bring fuels information to its audience with easy to find, engaging and approachable content. Be on the lookout for the 2016 NACS Consumer Fuels Report, launching in early March.

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Founded in 1961 as the National Association of Convenience Stores, NACS (nacsonline.com) is the international association for convenience and fuel retailing. The U.S. convenience store industry, with more than 152,700 stores across the country, posted $696.1 billion in total sales in 2014, of which $482.6 billion were motor fuels sales. NACS has 2,100 retail and 1,600 supplier member companies, which do business in nearly 50 countries.

SOURCE: NACS